Documentation

The Polymarket AI Quant Trading Dashboard provides real-time analysis of prediction markets using quantitative methods. Our platform ingests market data, applies machine learning algorithms, and generates actionable trading signals with position sizing recommendations.

The dashboard displays active markets from Polymarket, filtered to show only current events with future end dates. Each market includes AI-generated signals showing model probability, detected edge, confidence level, and recommended Kelly fraction for position sizing.

Model Probability: Our AI's estimated probability of the YES outcome occurring, based on multiple factors including price momentum, volume patterns, and market dynamics.

Edge: The difference between our model probability and the market's implied probability. Positive edge suggests the market undervalues YES; negative edge suggests overvaluation.

Confidence: A 0-100 score indicating signal reliability, derived from volume analysis, liquidity depth, and model agreement. Higher confidence suggests more reliable signals.

Kelly Fraction: Recommended position size as a percentage of bankroll, calculated using the Kelly Criterion formula: f = edge / odds. This optimizes long-term growth while managing risk.

Direction: BUY indicates our model sees value in the YES position; SELL suggests the market is overpriced.

Our approach combines quantitative analysis with disciplined risk management:

1. Edge-Based Trading: We only highlight opportunities where our model detects meaningful edge over market prices.

2. Kelly Position Sizing: Position sizes are mathematically optimized to maximize long-term growth while limiting drawdown risk.

3. Diversification: Across many markets, we expect our edge to compound over time, even with individual losses.

4. Systematic Execution: Emotions are removed from trading decisions through algorithmic signal generation.

5. Continuous Learning: Models are regularly updated with new market data to improve accuracy.

This platform is designed for:

- Prediction Market Enthusiasts: Traders looking to supplement their analysis with quantitative insights.

- Quantitative Traders: Those familiar with concepts like edge, Kelly criterion, and systematic trading.

- Researchers: Academics and analysts studying prediction market efficiency and pricing dynamics.

- Informed Decision Makers: Anyone seeking data-driven insights into current events and their probabilities.

Note: This tool is for informational purposes. Users should conduct their own research before making trading decisions.

Model Risk: Our AI models are probabilistic estimates. They can and will be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Market Risk: Prediction markets can be volatile. Prices can move against you quickly, especially around news events.

Liquidity Risk: Some markets have limited liquidity, making it difficult to enter or exit positions at desired prices.

Platform Risk: This dashboard relies on Polymarket API availability. Data delays or outages may affect signal accuracy.

Not Financial Advice: This platform provides informational analysis only. We are not financial advisors. Never trade more than you can afford to lose.

Regulatory Considerations: Ensure prediction market trading is legal in your jurisdiction before participating.

Ingestion Frequency: Market data is refreshed every 15 minutes via automated cron jobs.

Signal Generation: AI signals are regenerated after each data ingestion cycle.

Market Filtering: We only display active markets with future end dates, automatically removing expired or closed markets.

Historical Data: Currently, the platform focuses on real-time analysis. Historical backtesting features may be added in future updates.

We believe prediction markets are powerful tools for aggregating collective intelligence and forecasting future events. Our mission is to:

1. Democratize Quant Trading: Make sophisticated quantitative analysis accessible to all traders, not just institutions.

2. Improve Market Efficiency: By identifying mispricings, we contribute to more accurate probability estimates.

3. Promote Informed Trading: Provide tools that encourage research-based, disciplined trading over speculation.

4. Advance Forecasting Science: Contribute to the growing field of prediction market research and analysis.

We're committed to transparency, continuous improvement, and serving the prediction market community.